What to Say...?

We woke up at 04:30 this morning to tune into election results as they swept towards the American west coast, and, while we were definitely sad, we weren't surprised.  One of Nic's first statements was "Well, at least he won't have to resort to violence to steal it."  This has been my biggest train of thought all along - there was likely going to be violence either way.  Violence if he came out behind, violence if he came out ahead.  Violence not just from the Right, also from the Left.  No one was going to fix the broken systems and culture that make up the United States either, so the idea of Harris winning and things being okay wasn't one I subscribed to (just like when Biden won and everyone else seemed to feel relieved).

Nic and I went for a long walk just before Wisconsin was called to process our thoughts and feelings together.  I want to record these thoughts for myself, but also to share with you - random reader - in case you want to process this major event with us.  I'm exhausted and I imagine I'll have more to say as we move through the coming days (though I've been horrible at following up on the blog when I intend to, such as following up on our US trip this summer), so we'll see how this plays out.

(Nic's thoughts aren't positive on the outlook, FYI in case you can't handle that kind of analysis right now.)

Here were my initial thoughts:

I'm surprised that it wasn't a closer call, not because I trust every piece of data I'd seen suggesting that it would be close but because my gut told me that it should have been closer than it was.

NPR kept talking about how Trump voters they'd interviewed acknowledged that he said some wild things that they disagreed with, but the voters didn't believe he'd truly follow through.  It was okay with them that he bullshitted so much, yet they also said they appreciated his directness.  I suspect that these voters aren't brushing off what he says as much as they're letting on, or maybe the journalists are giving too much weight to their statements.  I suspect that people genuinely don't mind if he follows through with what he says, maybe even actively support it but are still feeling the small lingering thread of shame that's no longer common nor needed.

I feel like my liberal circle came out of 2020 with the impression that the prior 4 years weren't as bad as they expected them to be.  This time, the amount of power he will hold is astounding and I fear that his agenda will be far more successful.  I have no idea how this fact, combined with the permeating sense of disillusionment and helplessness, will affect the lives and choices that my friends make in the near future, and we are not in the same position that we were in 2016 when Nic and I did some scenario planning.

I'm glad we visited the US this summer so that I don't feel pressure to return while everything will likely be so volatile.  

Here are Nic's thoughts:

There are lots of friends who are suprised and upset, but the same people talked about how likely this was anyway.  A lot of people were relatively pessimistic going into it, and are still surprised that he won.  Nic has been talking a lot recently about the uncertainty of this race, about how the closeness they present is an illusion based on how the polling industry works and instills the public in a false sense of confidence in the "most likely" outcome.  So, Nic is surprised at the surprise of others in his circle.  Maybe it's not so much shock as it is disappointment.

From what it looks like on social media, folks are starting to come to grips with the fact that this is what America is, that Americans really don't care about democracy.  A big part of the reason why we left is because Nic concluded that he was going to end up fighting against people who are on the same side because of the cultural shift toward extremism in all directions.  It was easier for him to fight against a sort of oligarchic minority (think W Bush), but the majority of Americans just don't want democracy anymore.

Nic isn't sure if we're likely to see more people leave the US anymore.  People are not good at acknowledging change, people always think things are far more stable than they are even while watching things change.  It used to surprise him to realize how few were talking about leaving, or even coming to visit, but that surprise has severely diminished.

Nic believes that the Senate is gone for good, at least during his lifetime.  In the next cycle, there are only 2 seats that the Democrats could maybe win.  It's still conceivable next cycle, but beyond that it just gets worse, losing ground every cycle.  Unless Democrats start winning rural conservatives - which is definitely not happening, since they're losing lower educated urban voters as well - the Senate cannot be won.  Made worse is the fact that the Senate doesn't follow the rules it used to follow anymore due to the degradation of norms.  It doesn't advise and consult on matters, it instead is a brute force tool to exercise power.  It will never be in the Republican Senators' interest to resurrect those norms.

As such, they can use the Senate to make sure there is never a Democratic Supreme Court Justice, Attorney General, etc.  Democratic presidents could get elected and then never be able to fill their cabinets, never be able to exercise their executive authority.

The stage is set for the increasing consolidation of power by party loyalists among the Republicans.  It's specifically part of his agenda, and it's specifically why many people voted for him.  The people want a partisan, power-orientated, political government.  With Republicans now in the Senate, that's ultimately what's going to happen.

That doesn't mean that people will suddenly feel like they don't live in a democracy anymore.  It will be slow, normalized.

Nic doesn't think Trump nor Vance are actually conservative, they're just using populism to grab the power and are extremely corrupt. America is going to become a much more institutionally corrupt society driven by people who aren't motived by ideology and values, but by avarice.  This might mean we see fewer conservative policies than we think.  On the other hand, there aren't any checks anymore.